http://elie-hobeika.blogspot.com/
Most Charismatic, Unforgettable Leader, a visionary and a Hero. RIP
http://wiredlebanon.blogspot.com/
http://phoeniciaphoenix.blogspot.com/
As the election of a Lebanese President is postponed yet again, and for the ninth consecutive time, for lack of a political understanding between the Majority and the Opposition, four possible scenarios for the immediate future of the country spring to mind, each carrying with it its inherent security risks.
First Scenario and Related Risks:
Under the first scenario, Washington and Riyadh might strike a deal with Syria (and beyond it Iran). Damascus would then put pressure to bear on its friends and allies in Lebanon (Amal, Hezbollah and the likes of Michel Murr or Suleiman Frangieh), for them to put pressure in turn on Michel Aoun and bring him to toe the line. The latter would grudgingly agree and Parliament would convene to elect General Michel Suleiman as President. Such a scenario would go some way towards correcting the imbalances inherent to the lopsided application of the Taef Agreement, allowing the Christians to gain some of the ground lost to the Sunnis since 1989 and allowing the Shiites to at last turn their July 2006 military gains into real political gains.
In as much as prioritizing security risks is at all possible, the risks inherent to the First Scenario would, in order of likelihood, be:
(1) a war waged by the Army against Al-Qaeda-like Islamist groups;
(2) warfare in and around the Palestinian refugee camps as the war between the Army and Sunni Islamists groups overflows;
(3) operations staged by Sunni Islamist groups against Unifil units deployed in the South;
(4) acts of revenge by Sunni Islamists against Lebanese officials and Sunni “traitors”;
(5) acts of provocation by Sunni Islamists against Shiite targets;
(6) a wave of political assassinations by one or more foreign party seeking to again rewrite the Taef Agreement to suit its needs.
Second Scenario and Related Risks:
Under the second scenario, despite Damascus (and beyond it Tehran) having successfully struck a deal with Washington and Riyadh, Syria’s and Iran’s mainly Shiite allies in Lebanon might prove unable to convince Michel Aoun to toe the line and would feel compelled to put an end to the alliance they struck with him in 2006. With Aoun isolated from his allies and still refusing to negotiate, General Suleiman would refuse to run for president and a weak Christian candidate would be elected in his stead. This scenario would favor both the Shiites and the Sunnis, but it would work against the Christians. It would, in effect, take the country back to the early nineties when, after the assassination of President René Moawad, the forced exile of General Michel Aoun and the imprisonment of the assassin and serial murderer Samir Geagea, the Christians were marginalized and Rafic Hariri struck a deal with Damascus that allowed him to run the country for twelve years.
In as much as prioritizing security risks is at all possible, the risks inherent to the Second Scenario would, in order of likelihood, be:
(1) civil strife in the Christian regions as had happened following the 1989 assassination of President Moawad, when the Syrians succeeded in “Syrianizing” the Taef Agreement and the Christians were torn apart by a fratricidal war pitting opponents and proponents of Taef;
(2) operations staged by Sunni Islamist groups against Unifil units deployed in the South;
(3) a war between the Army and Al-Qaeda-like Islamist groups;
(4) warfare in and around the Palestinian refugee camps as the war between the Army and Sunni Islamists groups overflows;
(5) a wave of political assassinations by one or more foreign party seeking to again rewrite the Taef Agreement to suit its needs.
Third Scenario and Related Risks:
Under the third scenario, no deal having been reached between the West and the Syrians, the Majority would convene its MPs in haste to elect a president from its midst in the absence of Opposition MPs and, more importantly, in the absence of any Shiite MP. This would in effect take the country back to the autumn of 1989 and more particularly to the few weeks which elapsed between the signing of the Taef Agreement in October 1989 and the assassination of newly-elected President René Moawad on 22 November.
In as much as prioritizing security risks is at all possible, the risks inherent to the Third Scenario would, in order of likelihood, be:
(1) attempts on the life of the next president who will find himself in a similar situation to President René Moawad who was assassinated in the immediate aftermath of the signing of the 1989 Taef Agreement;
(2) .attacks on State institutions;
(3) attacks on the State’s foreign backers and notably on Unifil units deployed in the South, by Sunni Islamist groups and also possibly by Shiite groups;
(4) a resumption of rocket attacks across the border with Israel;
(5) Inter-Palestinian clashes in and around the refugee camps.
Fourth Scenario and Related Risks:
Under the fourth scenario, with the constitutional vacuum persisting, the power struggle between the various Lebanese factions and communities would gradually move away from a beleaguered and henceforth largely irrelevant central State apparatus, and take on a more regional and territorial form reminiscent of the 10-year inter-confessional civil war which, in effect, ended in 1985 with the signing of the short-lived Tripartite Agreement.
In as much as prioritizing security risks is at all possible, the risks inherent to the Fourth Scenario would, in order of likelihood, be:
(1) attempts on the life of the Batrak, or Druze leader Walid Joumblatt, and or Saad Hariri ;....
(2) civil strife in the Druze and Sunni regions; etc.? A New Pseudo-Cedar Revolution... made In Jeffrey Feltman again?
(3) sectarian incidents in religiously heterogeneous regions such as West Beirut, Iqlim al-Kharroub and the Shouf, Sidon and the South;
(4) inter-Palestinian clashes in the refugee camps;
(5) attacks on Unifil units deployed in the South;
(6) Cross-border rocket attacks on Israel.
(7) A coordinated, targeted attack in Iran, Syria and Hezbollah by USA and Israel....is likely still.
* - we are still in an artificial "waiting Game" expressly controlled by the Americans and the Israelis... because the Americans have come to the conclusion that SYRIA is on a "winning path".... if things continue the way it is going now.... and that SYRIA is "draining" the USA [ istinzaf ] Politically over the long haul... and that the US and Israel have devised a PLAN to make SYRIA PAY.... Militarily... and they think that they are abler to get militarily, what they were not able to get Politically from SYRIA.... and IRAN in a ricochet... and may be get them apart finally.....
Hence , I see a very Fast and Furious WAR in preparation with Israel and USA, and this WAR is coming sooner than anybody thinks.... and obviously it will target IRAN also for sure and South Lebanon inevitably... despite the UNIFIL...
One clear indication the upcoming visit BARAK to Cairo this week to see Mubarak....and many other infos falling together....
http://phoeniciaphoenix.blogspot.com/
http://hobeika.blogspot.com/
Universal Declaration of Human Rights
It has been sixty years since members of the United Nations have voted to
adopt the Universal Declaration of Human Rights as a minimum standard for
human behavior.
It is paradoxical that a primary contributor to the authorship of this most
important document was Charles Malek from Lebanon, a country whose very
constitution is based on sectarian principles that violate the most basic
principle of the document that one of its sons helped formulate.
To be fair though, Lebanon is only one country among many that have failed
to implement the associated ideas of human dignity, individual liberty,
social and economic justice as spelled out in the UDHR. Unfortunately, the
ugly face of cultural and religious relativism seems to have dealt a severe
blow to the idea of universalism and cosmopolitanism as envisioned by
Charles Malek and his colleagues. Many of the countries of the North have
spared no effort to spread civil liberties as enunciated by the UDHR while
those in the south have emphasized social and economic freedoms.
The UN is launching a major educational campaign, all over the world,
in an effort to remind us of these simple and honorable ideas that go a
long way in celebrating our humanity.
We, in Lebanon in particular, should resolve to use these sacred principles;
arrived at by the help of one of our favorite sons; in order to solve once
and for all the recurrent crisis that divides us and dehumanize us. We
should never forget that we are all born free and equal and that all
standards whether based on ethnicity, racial origin, religious practice,
gender or sexual orientation are artificial barriers that will only keep us
from becoming truly free and human. Is it time that we proclaim that in the
new Lebanon individuals will not be judged by their religious practices but
by their deep moral convictions and allegiance to sovereignty and human rights.
The attached is a copy of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights:
On December 10, 1948 the General Assembly of the United Nations
adopted and proclaimed the Universal Declaration of Human Rights the
full text of which appears in the following pages. Following this historic
act the Assembly called upon all Member countries to publicize the text
of the Declaration and "to cause it to be disseminated, displayed, read
and expounded principally in schools and other educational institutions,
without distinction based on the political status of countries or territories."
Preamble
Whereas recognition of the inherent dignity and of the equal and inalienable
rights of all members of the human family is the foundation of freedom,
justice and peace in the world,
Whereas disregard and contempt for human rights have resulted in barbarous
acts which have outraged the conscience of mankind, and the advent of a
world in which human beings shall enjoy freedom of speech and belief and
freedom from fear and want has been proclaimed as the highest aspiration of
the common people,
Whereas it is essential, if man is not to be compelled to have recourse, as
a last resort, to rebellion against tyranny and oppression, that human
rights should be protected by the rule of law,
Whereas it is essential to promote the development of friendly relations
between nations,
Whereas the peoples of the United Nations have in the Charter reaffirmed
their faith in fundamental human rights, in the dignity and worth of the
human person and in the equal rights of men and women and have determined to
promote social progress and better standards of life in larger freedom,
Whereas Member States have pledged themselves to achieve, in co-operation
with the United Nations, the promotion of universal respect for and
observance of human rights and fundamental freedoms,
Whereas a common understanding of these rights and freedoms is of the
greatest importance for the full realization of this pledge,
Now, Therefore THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY proclaims
THIS UNIVERSAL DECLARATION OF HUMAN RIGHTS as a
common standard of achievement for all peoples and all
nations, to the end that every individual and every organ of society,
keeping this Declaration constantly in mind, shall strive by teaching and
education to promote respect for these rights and freedoms and by
progressive measures, national and international, to secure their universal
and effective recognition and observance, both among the peoples of
Member States themselves and among the peoples of territories under
their jurisdiction.
Article 1.
All human beings are born free and equal in dignity and rights. They are
endowed with reason and conscience and should act towards one
another in a spirit of brotherhood.
Article 2.
Everyone is entitled to all the rights and freedoms set forth in this
Declaration, without distinction of any kind, such as race, colour, sex,
language, religion, political or other opinion, national or social origin,
property, birth or other status. Furthermore, no distinction shall be made
on the basis of the political, jurisdictional or international status of the
country or territory to which a person belongs, whether it be independent,
trust, non-self-governing or under any other limitation of sovereignty.
Article 3.
Everyone has the right to life, liberty and security of person.
Article 4.
No one shall be held in slavery or servitude; slavery and the slave trade
shall be prohibited in all their forms.
Article 5.
No one shall be subjected to torture or to cruel, inhuman or degrading
treatment or punishment.
Article 6.
Everyone has the right to recognition everywhere as a person before the law.
Article 7.
All are equal before the law and are entitled without any discrimination to
equal protection of the law. All are entitled to equal protection against
any discrimination in violation of this Declaration and against any
incitement to such discrimination.
Article 8.
Everyone has the right to an effective remedy by the competent national
tribunals for acts violating the fundamental rights granted him by the
constitution or by law.
Article 9.
No one shall be subjected to arbitrary arrest, detention or exile.
Article 10.
Everyone is entitled in full equality to a fair and public hearing by an
independent and impartial tribunal, in the determination of his rights and
obligations and of any criminal charge against him.
Article 11.
(1) Everyone charged with a penal offence has the right to be presumed
innocent until proved guilty according to law in a public trial at which he
has had all the guarantees necessary for his defence.
(2) No one shall be held guilty of any penal offence on account of any act
or omission which did not constitute a penal offence, under national or
international law, at the time when it was committed. Nor shall a heavier
penalty be imposed than the one that was applicable at the time the penal
offence was committed.
Article 12.
No one shall be subjected to arbitrary interference with his privacy,
family, home or correspondence, nor to attacks upon his honour and
reputation. Everyone has the right to the protection of the law against such
interference or attacks.
Article 13.
(1) Everyone has the right to freedom of movement and residence within the
borders of each state.
(2) Everyone has the right to leave any country, including his own, and to
return to his country.
Article 14.
(1) Everyone has the right to seek and to enjoy in other countries asylum
from persecution.
(2) This right may not be invoked in the case of prosecutions genuinely
arising from non-political crimes or from acts contrary to the purposes and
principles of the United Nations.
Article 15.
(1) Everyone has the right to a nationality.
(2) No one shall be arbitrarily deprived of his nationality nor denied the
right to change his nationality.
Article 16.
(1) Men and women of full age, without any limitation due to race,
nationality or religion, have the right to marry and to found a family. They
are entitled to equal rights as to marriage, during marriage and at its
dissolution.
(2) Marriage shall be entered into only with the free and full consent of
the intending spouses.
(3) The family is the natural and fundamental group unit of society and is
entitled to protection by society and the State.
Article 17.
(1) Everyone has the right to own property alone as well as in association
with others.
(2) No one shall be arbitrarily deprived of his property.
Article 18.
Everyone has the right to freedom of thought, conscience and religion; this
right includes freedom to change his religion or belief, and freedom, either
alone or in community with others and in public or private, to manifest his
religion or belief in teaching, practice, worship and observance.
Article 19.
Everyone has the right to freedom of opinion and expression; this right
includes freedom to hold opinions without interference and to seek, receive
and impart information and ideas through any media and regardless of
frontiers.
Article 20.
(1) Everyone has the right to freedom of peaceful assembly and association.
(2) No one may be compelled to belong to an association.
Article 21.
(1) Everyone has the right to take part in the government of his country,
directly or through freely chosen representatives.
(2) Everyone has the right of equal access to public service in his country.
(3) The will of the people shall be the basis of the authority of
government; this will shall be expressed in periodic and genuine elections
which shall be by universal and equal suffrage and shall be held by secret
vote or by equivalent free voting procedures.
Article 22.
Everyone, as a member of society, has the right to social security and is
entitled to realization, through national effort and international
co-operation and in accordance with the organization and resources of each
State, of the economic, social and cultural rights indispensable for his
dignity and the free development of his personality.
Article 23.
(1) Everyone has the right to work, to free choice of employment, to just
and favourable conditions of work and to protection against unemployment.
(2) Everyone, without any discrimination, has the right to equal pay for
equal work.
(3) Everyone who works has the right to just and favourable remuneration
ensuring for himself and his family an existence worthy of human dignity,
and supplemented, if necessary, by other means of social protection.
(4) Everyone has the right to form and to join trade unions for the
protection of his interests.
Article 24.
Everyone has the right to rest and leisure, including reasonable limitation
of working hours and periodic holidays with pay.
Article 25.
(1) Everyone has the right to a standard of living adequate for the health
and well-being of himself and of his family, including food, clothing,
housing and medical care and necessary social services, and the right to
security in the event of unemployment, sickness, disability, widowhood, old
age or other lack of livelihood in circumstances beyond his control.
(2) Motherhood and childhood are entitled to special care and assistance.
All children, whether born in or out of wedlock, shall enjoy the same social
protection.
Article 26.
(1) Everyone has the right to education. Education shall be free, at least
in the elementary and fundamental stages. Elementary education shall be
compulsory. Technical and professional education shall be made generally
available and higher education shall be equally accessible to all on the
basis of merit.
(2) Education shall be directed to the full development of the human
personality and to the strengthening of respect for human rights and
fundamental freedoms. It shall promote understanding, tolerance and
friendship among all nations, racial or religious groups, and shall further
the activities of the United Nations for the maintenance of peace.
(3) Parents have a prior right to choose the kind of education that shall be
given to their children.
Article 27.
(1) Everyone has the right freely to participate in the cultural life of the
community, to enjoy the arts and to share in scientific advancement and its
benefits.
(2) Everyone has the right to the protection of the moral and material
interests resulting from any scientific, literary or artistic production of
which he is the author.
Article 28.
Everyone is entitled to a social and international order in which the rights
and freedoms set forth in this Declaration can be fully realized.
Article 29.
(1) Everyone has duties to the community in which alone the free and full
development of his personality is possible.
(2) In the exercise of his rights and freedoms, everyone shall be subject
only to such limitations as are determined by law solely for the purpose of
securing due recognition and respect for the rights and freedoms of others
and of meeting the just requirements of morality, public order and the
general welfare in a democratic society.
(3) These rights and freedoms may in no case be exercised contrary to the
purposes and principles of the United Nations.
Article 30.
Nothing in this Declaration may be interpreted as implying for any State,
group or person any right to engage in any activity or to perform any act
aimed at the destruction of any of the rights and freedoms set forth herein.
بين الكلمات والمواقف، صورة مصغرة عن ما نطمح إليه
24 كانون الثاني 2002
هل من الصدفة أن نقرأ مواقف الكنيسة المارونية في هذه الفترة الحساسة من عمر الوطن، وأن تكون ملتبسة وغير واضحة ؟!
هل من الصدفة أن نسمع كلامًا فيه مساواة بين الحق والباطل ؟!
قد تكون الحقيقة غير مملوكة من طرف واحد، وبالتأكيد لا قدرة لأحد أن يمتلكها بالكامل. ولكن هل يجوز أن تنطلق الحقيقية من فعل مجتزأ وإرادة ناقصة وصورة مشوهة عن التاريخ والأصالة.
إذا كان قدر اللبنانيين أن تتجاذبهم إراداتٌ خارجية مبنية على مصالح دول غير عابئة بمصير وطن وشعب، فما بال الكنيسة اليوم لا تبحث عن مصلحة رعيتها، ولماذا عودة الحق إلى إصحابه هي بمثابة حلم لا يجوز وضعه على سلم أولويات المرحلة الراهنة، وإلى متى سنبقى نؤسس وندمر، ونعلو ونسقط، نُساير الآخرين فنصبح مع الوقت أهل زمة عندهم.
ولأنَّ، فعل " لأنَّ " في ورقة الثوابت المسيحية لديها دالات كبيرة قد يصعب على البعض تداركها سريعًا، " ولأنَّ من رفض قيام لبنان مسيحي منعزل عن محيطه، له على الشريك الآخر أن يرفض معه قيام لبنان مسلم متنكر لصيغتة، ولأنه لا بديل للمسيحيين عن الاندماج في محيطهم والتآخي ضمن مجتمعهم، مع الحفاظ على شخصيتهم وهويتهم الحضارية المتجذرة في الشرق والمنفتحة على حضارة الغرب، ولأن الحياة المشتركة الواحدة هي أكثر من عملية تلاصق قسري، إنما هي مدخل الى المواطنية ومنظومة حقوق وواجبات، تلجها الجماعات الروحية اللبنانية طوعاً عندما تطمئن الى استقرارها ومستقبلها."
واليوم عندما وجدت هذا الإنحدار في خطاب كنيستنا، لم أجد أقدر مما قلته في حفل عشاء هيئة رعشين – إغبه في تموز الماضي، لذا أعود وأنشره علّكم تجدون فيه شيئًا مما تنتظرونه.
هل مصادفةٌ، أن نحتفلَ اليوم بعشاء هيئة رعشين – إغبه في التيار الوطني الحر ولبنان يعيش بين مطرقة الفوضى وسندان الأمل بالسلم المنشود.
كيف لنا أن نؤسس لنبني وطنًا شعبه ينشد السلام، تواقًا إلى بناء وطنٍ يجسّد طموحاته وأحلامه، ويؤمّن له الحد الأدنى من الاستقرار والأمن والراحة.
كيف لنا أن نتحرر من هيمنة الكبار في الخارج وإجرام بعض الصغار في الداخل!؟
كيف لنا أن نتحرر، ما دام هناك البعض يساوي بين خيار النصف زائدًا واحدًا ونصاب الثلثين الدستوري لإنتخاب رئيس للجمهورية؟
كيف لنا، ما دام البعض، ويا للأسف، غالبيتهم من الموارنة، يجدون في مخيم المعارضة المطالب بالشراكة والعدل في الحكم، في أحد مواقف عاصمَتَنا بيروت، حالة لزعزعة الإستقرار وتدهور الإقتصاد وتعكير السلم الأهلي. ولا يعترضون أو يتساءلون عن الأسباب الموجبة لإنتخاب رئيس "كيف ما كان".
كيف لنا، ما دامت الذاكرة الجماعية للمجتمع اللبناني عمومًا والمسيحي خصوصًا غائبة حينًا ومغيبة حينًا آخر، رافضةً التمرد على واقع مُنحدر وصلنا إليه.
من هنا أما زلتم تتساءلون أيها الأصدقاء، لماذا خيار الفوضى يساوي خيار السلم في هذه الأيام.
- ثماني عشرة سنة وقف أباؤنا وأجدادنا على أبواب الملاجئ يشهدون على دمار أسواق بيروت وجونية، طرابلس وزحلة، فتحولوا مع الوقت شهود زور على القتل والسرقة عاجزين عن إقفها.
- وبعدها جاءت ثماني عشرة سنة من حربٍ إقتصادية لسنا في وارد الغوص في أسبابها، بحيث لم تسمح لنا، نحن جيل الغد، أن نعيش طفولتنا كما عاشها أمثالنا في بلدانٍ أخرى.
واليوم هل يُعقل أن نسمح لهم أن يسرُِقوا من عيون أجيالنا وأولادنا وأحفادكم حلم الطفولة وأمل المستقبل وحنين الماضي؟
هل تسمحون لمن باعنا واستثمرنا ودمّرنا وقتلنا، وطأطأ رؤوسنا، أن يُعطينا دروسًا في الوطنية والأخلاق والدستور.
هل يجب أن نُذكرّهم من هي كسروان- الفتوح؟
هل يجب أن نذكرهم أن مِعقل الموارنة هنا، فلا زعامة لأحد إلا من أرض العُصاة، من مِعقل التاريخ والأصالة.
ومن على تخوم رعشين جاءنا اليوم، من يعمل على أن يكون عاصيًا على بناء الدولة، من دون أن يدرك أن مفهوم العاصية عندنا هو طلب للحرية وليس إستزلامًا لقريطم.
هل يجب أن نذكرهم بأن أبناء العاصية، لم يقترعوا للعماد عون في العام 2005 نائبًا، بل اقترعوا له رئيسًا للجمهورية اللبنانية المنشودة.
وهل يجب أن نذكرهم بأننا لن نتخلى بهذه السهولة عن حقنا في الخيار ونستسلم للباطل.
وإذا كتبَ لنا، أن نخسر معركة بناء لبنان، فنحن على إستعداد أن نخسرها بشرف وبكرامة من أن نبيع أصواتنا وأصواتكم لنتاجر بها مهما غلت التضحيات.
بالأمس البعيد، غاب علامة من لبنان، هو بطريركِنا، بطريرك انطاكيا وسائر المشرق إسطفان الدويهي، رحل يوم كان لبنان في أمّس الحاجة إلى أمثاله وما زال. اليوم نناديك ومن عليائك، كم نحن في حاجة إليك وإلى صولجانك واقفًا الى جانب العماد عون والى جانبنا من إجل إسقاط كل مخططات التقسيم والتوطين والإلغاء.
أين أنتم يا مفكري هذه الطائفة؟ أين أنت أيها العلامة الأب ميشال حايك؟
أين رحلتُم، تاركين وراءكم بيوت الجهل والكفر تعشِّش وتتكاثر ولا من رادعٍ؟
ألا يحق لنا أن نبني من كلماتكم قصورًا للعلم والثقافة، ألم يأت السيد المسيح ليقول للفريسيين وفي بيت الله: بيتي بيتَ صلاة يسمى، وأنتم جعلتموه مغارةً للصوص.
هل الكفرُ للتغيير كفرٌ؟
أم الدعاة للسارقين صلاة؟
أيها الكتبة نذكركم بما كتب في الكتاب المقدس في سفر أخبار الملوك الفصل 2 الآية 4 .
" لا يموت الآباء بالبنين، ولا يموت البنون في الآباء، بل كل آمرئٍ بخطيئته يموت. "
في الختام.
كسروان- الفتوح، ورعشين وإغبه حالة لبنانية صرف، وجزء من المعادلة الوطنية الكبرى، من هنا التنافس هو حق مشروع أمام كل الأحزاب. لذا فليكن التنافس حقًّا مقدسًا، والإختلاف حقًّا مقدسًا، والتعددية حقًّا مقدسًا، والتفاعل حقًّا مقدسًا.
ولكن حذار تكرار تجارب الماضي، فإنًّ المرء لا يُلدغ من الجحر مرتين.
ولنبني لبنان كما قال العماد عون وكرر دائمًا، على قاعدة أن نكون أبعادًا لبنانية في الخارج لا أبعادًا خارجية في الداخل.
عشتم;
عاش: الوزير السابق ايلي حبيقة; شهيدنا البطل،وعريس بسكنتا, عميد الشهداء.
عاش: إلياس (إيلي) حبيقة .
عاشت: بسكنتا.
وعاش لبنان.
